Changchun Yatai vs Dingnan Ganlian FC

12 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Changchun Yatai

Dingnan Ganlian FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.5% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.0% 1.83 DRAW 25.8% 3.70 AWAY 22.2% 4.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Changchun Yatai relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.5% win probability, compared with 52.0% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Changchun Yatai

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Changchun Yatai Dingnan Ganlian FC

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Changchun Yatai Dingnan Ganlian FC

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Changchun Yatai has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Changchun Yatai Dingnan Ganlian FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Changchun Yatai.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Changchun Yatai ↓ -0.03 (-1.8%)

Dingnan Ganlian FC ↑ +0.76 (+18.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.