Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangxi Hengchen

18 Sep 2026 · 13:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Nantong Zhiyun

Guangxi Hengchen

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 28.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.4% 2.04 DRAW 28.0% 3.38 AWAY 25.6% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Guangxi Hengchen relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.7% win probability, compared with 25.6% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Guangxi Hengchen has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nantong Zhiyun Guangxi Hengchen

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Guangxi Hengchen, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nantong Zhiyun Guangxi Hengchen

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nantong Zhiyun Guangxi Hengchen

The combined recent performance profile favours Guangxi Hengchen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Nantong Zhiyun ↓ -0.21 (-9.3%)

Guangxi Hengchen ↑ +0.76 (+25.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.