MiPK vs KJP

17 Sep 2026 · 17:45

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +8.9 pp

MiPK

KJP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.8% DRAW 14.1% AWAY 12.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.9% 1.42 DRAW 17.4% 5.30 AWAY 17.7% 5.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates MiPK substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.8% win probability, compared with 64.9% implied by the market. The 8.9 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MiPK has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

MiPK KJP

Shots 19.8 · On target 9.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours MiPK, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MiPK KJP

Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.8

MiPK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MiPK KJP

The combined recent performance profile favours MiPK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

MiPK ↑ +0.02 (+1.4%)

KJP ↓ -0.52 (-9.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.