NoPS vs TPV II

25 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +7.8 pp

NoPS

TPV II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% DRAW 21.5% AWAY 23.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% 1.97 DRAW 23.4% 4.00 AWAY 29.2% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates NoPS substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.3% win probability, compared with 47.4% implied by the market. The 7.8 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

NoPS has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NoPS TPV II

Shots 20.3 · On target 12.0 Shots 13.3 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours NoPS, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NoPS TPV II

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 6.0

NoPS has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NoPS TPV II

The combined recent performance profile favours NoPS.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

NoPS ↓ -0.28 (-12.4%)

TPV II ↑ +0.70 (+28.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.