LAUTP II vs MP II

03 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +6.0 pp

LAUTP II

MP II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.0% DRAW 17.7% AWAY 67.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.7% 4.80 DRAW 19.9% 4.50 AWAY 61.4% 1.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates MP II clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.4% win probability, compared with 61.4% implied by the market. The 6.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MP II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

LAUTP II MP II

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 16.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours MP II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

LAUTP II MP II

Shots allowed 27.0 · On target allowed 10.5 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.0

MP II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

LAUTP II MP II

The combined recent performance profile favours MP II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

LAUTP II = (0.0%)

MP II = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.