Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Bulgaria

Luxembourg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.8% DRAW 33.7% AWAY 25.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.8% 2.53 DRAW 33.2% 2.95 AWAY 28.0% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Luxembourg

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bulgaria Luxembourg

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Luxembourg, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bulgaria Luxembourg

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Bulgaria has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bulgaria Luxembourg

The combined recent performance profile favours Bulgaria.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bulgaria ↑ +0.08 (+3.2%)

Luxembourg ↑ +0.16 (+4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.