MPS vs Poxyt

24 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

MPS

Poxyt

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.2% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 42.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.3% 3.00 DRAW 25.0% 4.00 AWAY 41.7% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Poxyt

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

MPS Poxyt

Shots 6.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Poxyt, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MPS Poxyt

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MPS Poxyt

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

MPS ↑ +0.75 (+33.3%)

Poxyt = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.