ToTe vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

11 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

ToTe

MPS/Atletico Malmi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.0% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 26.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.0% 1.97 DRAW 24.1% 4.00 AWAY 26.8% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: ToTe

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

ToTe MPS/Atletico Malmi

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ToTe MPS/Atletico Malmi

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ToTe MPS/Atletico Malmi

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

ToTe ↓ -0.03 (-1.5%)

MPS/Atletico Malmi ↑ +0.85 (+30.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.