HPS II vs Valtti

10 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

HPS II

Valtti

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% DRAW 17.5% AWAY 28.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.5% 1.90 DRAW 19.2% 5.00 AWAY 30.3% 3.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for HPS II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.9% win probability, compared with 50.5% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Valtti

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

HPS II Valtti

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HPS II Valtti

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.0

HPS II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HPS II Valtti

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

HPS II ↓ -0.15 (-7.3%)

Valtti ↑ +0.23 (+7.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.