Ulfarnir vs Alafoss

03 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Ulfarnir

Alafoss

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.5% DRAW 15.3% AWAY 20.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.1% 1.44 DRAW 16.3% 5.75 AWAY 18.5% 5.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Alafoss

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ulfarnir Alafoss

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ulfarnir Alafoss

Shots allowed 21.8 · On target allowed 12.3 Shots allowed 20.3 · On target allowed 8.5

Alafoss has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ulfarnir Alafoss

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ulfarnir ↓ -0.25 (-14.5%)

Alafoss ↑ +1.79 (+53.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.