Ellidi vs Hamar Hveragerdi

03 Sep 2026 · 21:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Ellidi

Hamar Hveragerdi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.3% DRAW 15.0% AWAY 67.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.9% 5.10 DRAW 16.8% 5.75 AWAY 64.3% 1.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hamar Hveragerdi relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.6% win probability, compared with 64.3% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Hamar Hveragerdi

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ellidi Hamar Hveragerdi

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 21.0 · On target 9.8

Recent attacking output favours Hamar Hveragerdi, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ellidi Hamar Hveragerdi

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ellidi Hamar Hveragerdi

The combined recent performance profile favours Hamar Hveragerdi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ellidi ↓ -0.90 (-15.0%)

Hamar Hveragerdi ↑ +0.22 (+16.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.