Alftanes vs Ellidi

10 Sep 2026 · 21:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Alftanes

Ellidi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 92.9% DRAW 4.9% AWAY 2.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 89.1% 1.06 DRAW 7.3% 13.00 AWAY 3.6% 26.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Alftanes relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 92.9% win probability, compared with 89.1% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Alftanes has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alftanes Ellidi

Shots 29.5 · On target 20.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Alftanes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alftanes Ellidi

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alftanes Ellidi

The combined recent performance profile favours Alftanes.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Alftanes ↓ -0.01 (-0.8%)

Ellidi ↑ +9.00 (+52.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.