Alafoss vs KF Hafnir

10 Sep 2026 · 21:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Alafoss

KF Hafnir

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.7% DRAW 16.2% AWAY 26.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.0% 1.64 DRAW 17.2% 5.73 AWAY 22.8% 4.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for KF Hafnir relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.1% win probability, compared with 22.8% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: KF Hafnir

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alafoss KF Hafnir

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours KF Hafnir, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alafoss KF Hafnir

Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 8.3 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 8.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alafoss KF Hafnir

The combined recent performance profile favours KF Hafnir.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Alafoss ↓ -0.16 (-8.9%)

KF Hafnir ↑ +1.42 (+49.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.