Hellenic AC vs Darwin Hearts

05 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Hellenic AC

Darwin Hearts

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.0% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 55.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 20.5% 4.70 DRAW 20.3% 4.75 AWAY 59.1% 1.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hellenic AC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 24.0% win probability, compared with 20.5% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hellenic AC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hellenic AC Darwin Hearts

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hellenic AC Darwin Hearts

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.3

Hellenic AC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hellenic AC Darwin Hearts

The combined recent performance profile favours Hellenic AC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hellenic AC ↑ +0.50 (+11.9%)

Darwin Hearts ↑ +0.13 (+8.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.