Port Darwin FC vs University Azzurri FC

05 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Port Darwin FC

University Azzurri FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.1% DRAW 13.6% AWAY 77.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.4% 9.50 DRAW 15.2% 6.50 AWAY 74.4% 1.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for University Azzurri FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.3% win probability, compared with 74.4% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

University Azzurri FC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Port Darwin FC University Azzurri FC

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 20.0 · On target 10.8

Recent attacking output favours University Azzurri FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Port Darwin FC University Azzurri FC

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

University Azzurri FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Port Darwin FC University Azzurri FC

The combined recent performance profile favours University Azzurri FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Port Darwin FC ↑ +0.50 (+5.6%)

University Azzurri FC ↑ +0.16 (+14.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.