Sao Paulo U20 vs Uniao Sao Joao EC U20

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Sao Paulo U20

Uniao Sao Joao EC U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 88.4% DRAW 8.4% AWAY 3.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 85.3% 1.14 DRAW 10.4% 9.36 AWAY 4.2% 23.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sao Paulo U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 88.4% win probability, compared with 85.3% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sao Paulo U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sao Paulo U20 Uniao Sao Joao EC U20

Shots 22.0 · On target 11.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Sao Paulo U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sao Paulo U20 Uniao Sao Joao EC U20

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Sao Paulo U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sao Paulo U20 Uniao Sao Joao EC U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Sao Paulo U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sao Paulo U20 ↓ -0.02 (-1.6%)

Uniao Sao Joao EC U20 ↑ +10.50 (+84.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.