Gremio Novorizontino U20 vs Aguai U20

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Gremio Novorizontino U20

Aguai U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 88.8% DRAW 7.5% AWAY 3.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 86.4% 1.13 DRAW 9.1% 10.63 AWAY 4.4% 22.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Gremio Novorizontino U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gremio Novorizontino U20 Aguai U20

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Gremio Novorizontino U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gremio Novorizontino U20 Aguai U20

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 7.5

Gremio Novorizontino U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gremio Novorizontino U20 Aguai U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Gremio Novorizontino U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Gremio Novorizontino U20 ↓ -0.12 (-9.3%)

Aguai U20 ↑ +10.50 (+91.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.