Gremio Prudente U20 vs Guarani SP U20

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Gremio Prudente U20

Guarani SP U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 36.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% 3.10 DRAW 28.1% 3.50 AWAY 40.3% 2.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gremio Prudente U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.5% win probability, compared with 31.7% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gremio Prudente U20

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gremio Prudente U20 Guarani SP U20

Shots 16.5 · On target 7.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Gremio Prudente U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gremio Prudente U20 Guarani SP U20

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gremio Prudente U20 Guarani SP U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Gremio Prudente U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Gremio Prudente U20 ↓ -0.04 (-1.3%)

Guarani SP U20 ↑ +0.32 (+15.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.