Italy U20 (W) vs New Zealand (W) U20

09 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Italy U20 (W)

New Zealand (W) U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.0% DRAW 12.8% AWAY 6.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 80.1% 1.17 DRAW 13.6% 6.87 AWAY 6.2% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Italy U20 (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Italy U20 (W) New Zealand (W) U20

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 1.0 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Italy U20 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Italy U20 (W) New Zealand (W) U20

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 1.3

New Zealand (W) U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Italy U20 (W) New Zealand (W) U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Italy U20 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Italy U20 (W) = (0.0%)

New Zealand (W) U20 = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.