Colombia U20 (W) vs Portugal U20 (W)

10 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Colombia U20 (W)

Portugal U20 (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 35.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.0% 2.84 DRAW 27.9% 3.35 AWAY 39.1% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Colombia U20 (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.2% win probability, compared with 33.0% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Portugal U20 (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Colombia U20 (W) Portugal U20 (W)

Shots 3.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Portugal U20 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Colombia U20 (W) Portugal U20 (W)

Shots allowed 1.0 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Colombia U20 (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Colombia U20 (W) Portugal U20 (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Colombia U20 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Colombia U20 (W) ↓ -0.20 (-6.4%)

Portugal U20 (W) ↓ -0.16 (-6.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.