FK Siauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

FK Siauliai

Hegelmann Litauen

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.0% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 40.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.68 DRAW 27.1% 3.50 AWAY 37.5% 2.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hegelmann Litauen relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.4% win probability, compared with 37.5% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Hegelmann Litauen

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Siauliai Hegelmann Litauen

Shots 8.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 6.0 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Siauliai Hegelmann Litauen

Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Hegelmann Litauen has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Siauliai Hegelmann Litauen

The combined recent performance profile favours Hegelmann Litauen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FK Siauliai ↑ +0.18 (+7.2%)

Hegelmann Litauen ↑ +0.10 (+4.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.