NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.6 pp

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Rijeka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.7% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 64.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.0% 5.25 DRAW 24.3% 3.90 AWAY 57.7% 1.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates HNK Rijeka substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.3% win probability, compared with 57.7% implied by the market. The 6.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

HNK Rijeka has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours HNK Rijeka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

Shots allowed 19.0 · On target allowed 7.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.5

HNK Rijeka has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK Rijeka

The combined recent performance profile favours HNK Rijeka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb = (0.0%)

HNK Rijeka = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.