HNK Rijeka vs Hajduk Split

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

HNK Rijeka

Hajduk Split

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.6% DRAW 26.4% AWAY 21.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.9% 1.94 DRAW 27.3% 3.48 AWAY 23.8% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for HNK Rijeka relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.6% win probability, compared with 48.9% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: HNK Rijeka

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

HNK Rijeka Hajduk Split

Shots 21.5 · On target 10.8 Shots 14.5 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours HNK Rijeka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HNK Rijeka Hajduk Split

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HNK Rijeka Hajduk Split

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

HNK Rijeka ↓ -0.26 (-11.7%)

Hajduk Split ↑ +0.49 (+14.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.