Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo

13 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Hajduk Split

Slaven Belupo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.7% DRAW 15.7% AWAY 9.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.8% 1.34 DRAW 17.7% 5.37 AWAY 11.6% 8.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hajduk Split relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.7% win probability, compared with 70.8% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hajduk Split has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hajduk Split Slaven Belupo

Shots 15.5 · On target 7.8 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Hajduk Split, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hajduk Split Slaven Belupo

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Hajduk Split has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hajduk Split Slaven Belupo

The combined recent performance profile favours Hajduk Split.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hajduk Split ↑ +0.01 (+1.1%)

Slaven Belupo = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.