AGF Aarhus vs Silkeborg IF

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

AGF Aarhus

Silkeborg IF

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.7% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 13.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.3% 1.49 DRAW 20.4% 4.70 AWAY 15.3% 6.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AGF Aarhus relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.7% win probability, compared with 64.3% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

AGF Aarhus has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AGF Aarhus Silkeborg IF

Shots 16.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours AGF Aarhus, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AGF Aarhus Silkeborg IF

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AGF Aarhus Silkeborg IF

The combined recent performance profile favours AGF Aarhus.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

AGF Aarhus ↓ -0.08 (-5.2%)

Silkeborg IF ↑ +1.20 (+23.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.