Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico

13 Sep 2026 · 22:15

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +8.7 pp

Atletico Grau

Alianza Atletico

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.9% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 40.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.4% 2.50 DRAW 29.5% 3.26 AWAY 32.1% 2.99

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Alianza Atletico substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.8% win probability, compared with 32.1% implied by the market. The 8.7 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Alianza Atletico has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Grau Alianza Atletico

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 19.8 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Alianza Atletico, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Grau Alianza Atletico

Shots allowed 21.0 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Alianza Atletico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Grau Alianza Atletico

The combined recent performance profile favours Alianza Atletico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Atletico Grau ↑ +0.36 (+16.8%)

Alianza Atletico ↓ -0.41 (-12.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.