Universitario de Deportes vs Comerciantes Unidos

06 Sep 2026 · 03:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Universitario de Deportes

Comerciantes Unidos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.1% DRAW 19.8% AWAY 11.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.1% 1.38 DRAW 19.7% 4.90 AWAY 10.2% 9.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Comerciantes Unidos

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Universitario de Deportes Comerciantes Unidos

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 19.0 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours Comerciantes Unidos, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Universitario de Deportes Comerciantes Unidos

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Universitario de Deportes has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Universitario de Deportes Comerciantes Unidos

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Universitario de Deportes ↑ +0.10 (+7.6%)

Comerciantes Unidos ↓ -1.60 (-14.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.