FBC Melgar vs AD Tarma

07 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

FBC Melgar

AD Tarma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.4% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.2% 1.43 DRAW 20.5% 4.70 AWAY 12.3% 7.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: FBC Melgar

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

FBC Melgar AD Tarma

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours FBC Melgar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FBC Melgar AD Tarma

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FBC Melgar AD Tarma

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FBC Melgar ↓ -0.09 (-5.9%)

AD Tarma ↑ +2.04 (+25.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.