Alianza Lima vs AD Tarma

19 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Alianza Lima

AD Tarma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.9% DRAW 17.3% AWAY 8.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.1% 1.35 DRAW 18.8% 5.10 AWAY 10.1% 9.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Alianza Lima relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.9% win probability, compared with 71.1% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Alianza Lima has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza Lima AD Tarma

Shots 18.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Alianza Lima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza Lima AD Tarma

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza Lima AD Tarma

The combined recent performance profile favours Alianza Lima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Alianza Lima ↑ +0.06 (+4.7%)

AD Tarma ↓ -0.80 (-7.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.