Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima

06 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Juan Pablo II College

Alianza Lima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.3% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 56.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.1% 4.45 DRAW 25.7% 3.83 AWAY 52.3% 1.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Alianza Lima relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.2% win probability, compared with 52.3% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Alianza Lima has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Juan Pablo II College Alianza Lima

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 20.5 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Alianza Lima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Juan Pablo II College Alianza Lima

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Juan Pablo II College Alianza Lima

The combined recent performance profile favours Alianza Lima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Juan Pablo II College ↓ -0.30 (-6.3%)

Alianza Lima ↑ +0.15 (+8.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.