Parma vs Genoa

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Parma

Genoa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.4% DRAW 33.2% AWAY 39.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.1% 3.23 DRAW 32.8% 2.97 AWAY 37.1% 2.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Genoa has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Parma Genoa

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 15.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Genoa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Parma Genoa

Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Parma Genoa

The combined recent performance profile favours Genoa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Parma ↑ +0.05 (+1.6%)

Genoa ↑ +0.07 (+2.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.