Lazio vs AC Milan

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Lazio

AC Milan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.4% DRAW 30.3% AWAY 44.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.7% 3.98 DRAW 29.8% 3.31 AWAY 45.5% 2.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lazio

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lazio AC Milan

Shots 16.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lazio AC Milan

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.3

AC Milan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lazio AC Milan

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Lazio ↑ +0.59 (+17.2%)

AC Milan ↓ -0.21 (-8.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.