Inter Milan vs Udinese

14 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Inter Milan

Udinese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.4% DRAW 12.4% AWAY 5.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 79.8% 1.23 DRAW 14.0% 7.00 AWAY 6.1% 16.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Inter Milan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 82.4% win probability, compared with 79.8% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Inter Milan has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Inter Milan Udinese

Shots 23.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Inter Milan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Inter Milan Udinese

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Inter Milan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Inter Milan Udinese

The combined recent performance profile favours Inter Milan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Inter Milan ↓ -0.08 (-6.2%)

Udinese ↑ +4.80 (+42.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.