Como vs Parma

14 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Como

Parma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.8% DRAW 12.7% AWAY 5.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.1% 1.24 DRAW 14.9% 6.50 AWAY 7.0% 13.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Como relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 81.8% win probability, compared with 78.1% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Como has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Como Parma

Shots 18.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Como, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Como Parma

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Como has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Como Parma

The combined recent performance profile favours Como.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Como ↓ -0.06 (-4.4%)

Parma ↑ +0.43 (+3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.