Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia

14 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Ludogorets Razgrad

Septemvri Sofia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.5% DRAW 14.4% AWAY 7.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.1% 1.25 DRAW 15.8% 6.00 AWAY 8.1% 11.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ludogorets Razgrad has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ludogorets Razgrad Septemvri Sofia

Shots 16.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Ludogorets Razgrad, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ludogorets Razgrad Septemvri Sofia

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ludogorets Razgrad Septemvri Sofia

The combined recent performance profile favours Ludogorets Razgrad.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Ludogorets Razgrad ↑ +0.06 (+5.0%)

Septemvri Sofia ↓ -2.90 (-19.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.