Vardar Skopje vs KF Arsimi

07 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Vardar Skopje

KF Arsimi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 89.5% DRAW 6.3% AWAY 4.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 88.7% 1.06 DRAW 7.2% 13.00 AWAY 4.1% 23.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Vardar Skopje

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vardar Skopje KF Arsimi

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Vardar Skopje, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vardar Skopje KF Arsimi

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vardar Skopje KF Arsimi

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Vardar Skopje ↓ -0.11 (-9.4%)

KF Arsimi ↑ +6.00 (+35.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.