Toluca vs Tijuana
Match Overview
Model vs Market
The model identifies a slight model-market difference for a home win for Toluca. The difference indicates only a limited disagreement with market expectations.
Recent Performance
The visitors have drawn their last 2 matches.
Across 5 matches with complete shooting data, the home side averaged 14.4 shots per match and conceded 10 goals in that sample. Across 5 such matches, the visitors averaged 15.0 shots per match and conceded 7 goals.
In recent matches with recorded scores, the home side averaged 1.67 goals per match, against a weighted league reference of 1.43. The visitors averaged 1.17 goals per match, against their weighted league reference of 1.48.
Across recent matches with recorded shooting data, Toluca averaged 14.4 shots per match and Tijuana averaged 15.0. The shooting comparison does not provide strong additional support for this outcome. However, the visitors have conceded fewer goals in their recent matches, which calls for caution.
Pre-Match Betting Perspective
Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 1.31 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.34. At this price, a home win for Toluca does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.
Statistical Context & Data Notes
Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.
Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.
Model vs Market
Attacking Edge: Toluca
The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.
Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.
Market Momentum
Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-10-21 21:13:02
6h window
| Outcome | Pinnacle | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| HOME | +0.09 pp | +1.18 pp |
| DRAW | -0.04 pp | -0.61 pp |
| AWAY | -0.05 pp | -0.57 pp |
No qualified strong agreement in this window.
24h window
| Outcome | Pinnacle | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| HOME | +4.36 pp | +5.51 pp |
| DRAW | -1.50 pp | -2.40 pp |
| AWAY | -2.86 pp | -3.11 pp |
Market Agreement: HOME UP · AWAY DOWN
Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.
Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
Recent matches compared
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.
How have the teams performed recently?
Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss
Shots taken
Shots per match · difference from league average
Shots conceded
Opposition shots per match · difference from league average
Shots on target
Shots on target per match · difference from league average
Shots on target conceded
Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average
Goals scored
Goals per match · difference from league average
Shot conversion
Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points
Goals conceded per shots faced
Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points
Individual match details
Toluca · individual matches
| Date | Venue | Result | Shots for/against | On target for/against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2026 | Home | 1–1 | 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 |
| 10/10/2026 | Away | 2–3 | 17 / 20 | 8 / 13 |
| 04/10/2026 | Away | 1–2 | — | — |
| 27/09/2026 | Away | 3–3 | 18 / 17 | 7 / 7 |
| 21/09/2026 | Home | 2–3 | 24 / 22 | 9 / 6 |
| 16/09/2026 | Away | 1–0 | 12 / 13 | 4 / 2 |
Tijuana · individual matches
| Date | Venue | Result | Shots for/against | On target for/against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2026 | Home | 0–0 | 20 / 6 | 5 / 3 |
| 11/10/2026 | Away | 1–1 | 13 / 8 | 4 / 5 |
| 26/09/2026 | Home | 2–3 | 10 / 21 | 5 / 7 |
| 21/09/2026 | Away | 2–2 | 8 / 29 | 5 / 11 |
| 17/09/2026 | Away | 2–1 | — | — |
| 12/09/2026 | Home | 0–1 | 24 / 8 | 4 / 4 |
The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.