Cruz Azul vs Toluca

27 Sep 2026 · 00:50

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Cruz Azul

Toluca

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.5% DRAW 27.6% AWAY 35.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% 2.72 DRAW 27.8% 3.50 AWAY 36.4% 2.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cruz Azul

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cruz Azul Toluca

Shots 15.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cruz Azul Toluca

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Toluca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cruz Azul Toluca

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cruz Azul ↓ -0.05 (-1.8%)

Toluca ↑ +0.04 (+1.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.