Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna

07 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Cruz Azul

Santos Laguna

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 71.7% DRAW 16.5% AWAY 11.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.0% 1.40 DRAW 18.1% 5.32 AWAY 13.0% 7.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cruz Azul relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.7% win probability, compared with 69.0% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cruz Azul

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cruz Azul Santos Laguna

Shots 16.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Cruz Azul, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cruz Azul Santos Laguna

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cruz Azul Santos Laguna

The combined recent performance profile favours Cruz Azul.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cruz Azul ↓ -0.02 (-1.4%)

Santos Laguna ↓ -0.07 (-0.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.