Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warsaw

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.1 pp

Jagiellonia Bialystok

Legia Warsaw

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.6% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 43.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.1% 2.85 DRAW 27.7% 3.50 AWAY 38.2% 2.54

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Legia Warsaw clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.3% win probability, compared with 38.2% implied by the market. The 5.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Legia Warsaw has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Jagiellonia Bialystok Legia Warsaw

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Legia Warsaw, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Jagiellonia Bialystok Legia Warsaw

Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Legia Warsaw has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Jagiellonia Bialystok Legia Warsaw

The combined recent performance profile favours Legia Warsaw.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Jagiellonia Bialystok ↓ -0.11 (-3.7%)

Legia Warsaw ↑ +0.19 (+8.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.