Motor Lublin vs Legia Warsaw

05 Sep 2026 · 20:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Motor Lublin

Legia Warsaw

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.3% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 49.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.2% 3.67 DRAW 26.0% 3.69 AWAY 47.8% 2.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Legia Warsaw

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Motor Lublin Legia Warsaw

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Legia Warsaw, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Motor Lublin Legia Warsaw

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Motor Lublin Legia Warsaw

The combined recent performance profile favours Legia Warsaw.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Motor Lublin ↓ -0.23 (-5.9%)

Legia Warsaw ↑ +0.06 (+3.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.