Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Slask Wroclaw

06 Sep 2026 · 20:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Jagiellonia Bialystok

Slask Wroclaw

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.4% DRAW 20.3% AWAY 18.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.7% 1.67 DRAW 21.8% 4.41 AWAY 20.5% 4.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Jagiellonia Bialystok relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.4% win probability, compared with 57.7% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Jagiellonia Bialystok

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Jagiellonia Bialystok Slask Wroclaw

Shots 14.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Jagiellonia Bialystok, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Jagiellonia Bialystok Slask Wroclaw

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 7.3

Jagiellonia Bialystok has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Jagiellonia Bialystok Slask Wroclaw

The combined recent performance profile favours Jagiellonia Bialystok.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Jagiellonia Bialystok ↓ -0.06 (-3.5%)

Slask Wroclaw ↑ +0.39 (+9.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.