Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.0 pp

Fortuna Sittard

Ajax

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.3% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 73.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.4% 7.26 DRAW 17.7% 5.50 AWAY 68.9% 1.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Ajax clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.0% win probability, compared with 68.9% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ajax has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fortuna Sittard Ajax

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 20.5 · On target 9.5

Recent attacking output favours Ajax, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fortuna Sittard Ajax

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Ajax has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fortuna Sittard Ajax

The combined recent performance profile favours Ajax.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fortuna Sittard ↑ +0.20 (+2.8%)

Ajax ↓ -0.01 (-0.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.