Willem II vs Excelsior

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Willem II

Excelsior

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.1% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 44.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.6% 3.19 DRAW 26.5% 3.68 AWAY 42.9% 2.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Excelsior

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Willem II Excelsior

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Willem II Excelsior

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Excelsior has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Willem II Excelsior

The combined recent performance profile favours Excelsior.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Willem II ↑ +0.28 (+9.5%)

Excelsior ↓ -0.09 (-3.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.