FC Twente vs Telstar

09 Sep 2026 · 18:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

FC Twente

Telstar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.5% DRAW 11.2% AWAY 6.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 77.2% 1.26 DRAW 13.9% 6.98 AWAY 8.8% 11.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates FC Twente clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 82.5% win probability, compared with 77.2% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Twente has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Twente Telstar

Shots 22.0 · On target 7.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours FC Twente, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Twente Telstar

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.5

FC Twente has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Twente Telstar

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Twente.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Twente ↓ -0.06 (-4.5%)

Telstar ↑ +1.90 (+20.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.