Atlante vs Monterrey

26 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Atlante

Monterrey

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 44.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.0% 3.35 DRAW 26.2% 3.70 AWAY 44.8% 2.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Monterrey

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atlante Monterrey

Shots 18.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atlante Monterrey

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Monterrey has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atlante Monterrey

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Atlante ↓ -0.25 (-6.9%)

Monterrey ↑ +0.16 (+8.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.