Juarez FC vs Tigres UANL

19 Sep 2026 · 05:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Juarez FC

Tigres UANL

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.4% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 54.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.6% 4.30 DRAW 26.3% 3.70 AWAY 51.1% 1.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tigres UANL relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.2% win probability, compared with 51.1% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Tigres UANL has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Juarez FC Tigres UANL

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 14.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Tigres UANL, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Juarez FC Tigres UANL

Shots allowed 19.8 · On target allowed 8.3 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Tigres UANL has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Juarez FC Tigres UANL

The combined recent performance profile favours Tigres UANL.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Juarez FC ↓ -0.20 (-4.4%)

Tigres UANL ↑ +0.03 (+1.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.