Puebla vs Atlante

19 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Puebla

Atlante

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.5% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 29.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.39 DRAW 27.5% 3.55 AWAY 31.5% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Puebla relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.5% win probability, compared with 40.9% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Puebla

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Puebla Atlante

Shots 14.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 16.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Puebla Atlante

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Puebla has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Puebla Atlante

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Puebla ↑ +0.24 (+11.2%)

Atlante ↓ -0.05 (-1.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.