Leon vs Atletico San Luis

15 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Leon

Atletico San Luis

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.8% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.8% 1.94 DRAW 26.0% 3.72 AWAY 24.2% 3.99

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico San Luis

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leon Atletico San Luis

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leon Atletico San Luis

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Leon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leon Atletico San Luis

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Leon ↓ -0.21 (-9.6%)

Atletico San Luis ↑ +0.89 (+28.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.