Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Tigres UANL

Necaxa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.5% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 18.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% 1.79 DRAW 24.8% 4.00 AWAY 19.8% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Tigres UANL

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tigres UANL Necaxa

Shots 17.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 13.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tigres UANL Necaxa

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Tigres UANL has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tigres UANL Necaxa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tigres UANL ↑ +0.20 (+12.2%)

Necaxa ↓ -0.50 (-9.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.